Elevat Solar Consulting
Green Energy Brief
Issue No 06

11 August 2026
Southeast Europe · Solar & Storage Intelligence
Brief No 04 measured the negative-price stress building across SEE markets. Brief No 05 marked the moment the EU inverter restrictions took effect. This issue covers a shock from an entirely different direction: the Danube fell to a record low, hydro output collapsed across the basin, and the assets that held the system together were solar and storage.
10 cm
Danube water level - Budapest, August 4, 2026

Danube hits record low - SEE grid on emergency footing

The Danube reached 10 cm in Budapest on August 4 - well below the previous all-time low of 33 cm set in 2018. Serbia's Djerdap I is running at about 20% of capacity and Djerdap II at about 30%, per Energy Minister Djedovic Handanovic. The two plants supply roughly 18% of Serbia's electricity. Romania shut down one reactor at Cernavodă and deployed its navy to blast rock to redirect cooling water. Bulgaria warned of potential Kozloduy curtailment. Solar and BESS are the only generation assets unaffected by the drought - and suddenly the most valuable on the grid.

Eight markets under one shock. Hover any card for BESS detail.
🇧🇬 BESS: 4,800 MW / 14+ GWh operational by mid-June (Capital). Top 15 ranking: Enery, PPC, ContourGlobal lead. IPS battery factory near Sofia - 3 GWh production started, 5 GWh by Q2. Kozloduy nuclear threatened by Danube drought.
🇧🇬Bulgaria
BESS Active
6.64 GW PV
Wind 0.7 GW Hydro 3.3 GW
Key event: 50%+ renewable generation in May-June for first time. Bulgaria net exporter during Danube crisis. BESS hits 14 GWh milestone.
🇷🇴 BESS: Premier Energy 200MW/400MWh under construction. PNE Romania: 2 standalone BESS permits (165MW/330MWh + 107MW/214MWh, Constanța). PPC BESS at Fântânele-Vest (45.7MW/91.4MWh) + Corugea (40.1MW/80.2MWh). Cernavodă nuclear at 50% - grid stress acute.
🇷🇴Romania
BESS Active
~8.5 GW PV
Wind 3.5 GW Hydro 6.4 GW
Key event: Cernavodă reactor shut down - Danube flow at 1,500 m³/s (⅓ of average). Day-ahead prices hit €340/MWh. State of energy alert declared.
🇬🇷 BESS: Curtailments projected 3.3-3.7 TWh for 2026 (75% increase vs 2025). BESS deployment still blocked by financing issues. Curtailments reached 12% of renewables output. Metlen + PPC BESS JV announced.
🇬🇷Greece
BESS Blocked
~12.0 GW PV
Wind 5.8 GW Hydro 3.4 GW
Key event: 2026 curtailments forecast 3.3-3.7 TWh (+75% vs 2025). Greece leaning on Bulgaria for power imports during Danube crisis.
🇷🇸 BESS: Grid connection contracts for 724MW signed. Hyundai/UGT 1GW + 200MW/400MWh ongoing. Djerdap I at 20% and Djerdap II at 30% of capacity due to Danube drought. Serbia-EDF strategic partnership signed.
🇷🇸Serbia
BESS Early
0.38 GW PV
Wind 0.8 GW Hydro 2.8 GW
Key event: Djerdap I at 20% and Djerdap II at 30% of capacity. SEEPEX price fell to €107/MWh, €40 below Montenegro.
🇲🇰 BESS: Ministry launched public call for standalone BESS grants. Končar + Dalekovod building first phase of Štip wind farm. Intraday market operational since May 6.
🇲🇰N. Macedonia
BESS Early
0.30 GW PV
Wind 0.1 GW Hydro 0.7 GW
Key event: Ministry launches BESS grant scheme. Štip wind farm construction begins (Končar + Dalekovod).
🇲🇪 BESS: AFD + CGES €25M loan for substation modernization (Perućica + Pljevlja 2) - enables 350MW hydro integration. EPCG 639MW pipeline active. Montenegro highest day-ahead prices in region during Danube crisis.
🇲🇪Montenegro
BESS Early
0.10 GW PV
Wind 0.1 GW Hydro 0.7 GW
Key event: AFD €25M loan for substation upgrades. Montenegro highest-priced market in SEE during drought - €40+ above Serbia.
🇧🇦 BESS: No operational projects. Coal still dominant. CBAM lobbying continues with WB5 partners. EuroHPC €10B AI Gigafactories call - potential data center + energy demand signal.
🇧🇦Bosnia & Herz.
No BESS
0.10 GW PV
Wind 0.1 GW Hydro 2.1 GW
Key event: No solar/BESS milestone this month. CBAM provisions remain under WB5 pressure.
🇽🇰 BESS: No operational projects. KEK Solar 100MW under construction. 170MW storage target by 2031 per NECP. Danube crisis has limited impact - Kosovo not Danube-dependent.
🇽🇰Kosovo
No BESS
0.10 GW PV
Wind 0.0 GW Hydro 0.3 GW
Key event: KEK Solar 100MW under construction. Drought has limited grid impact vs neighbours.
EU member state
Western Balkans
Hover card for BESS detail · PV data: ENTSO-E / national TSOs · August 2026
Active and under construction · August 2026
Country Project MW / MWh Status Note
🇧🇬 Bulgaria Total operational BESS 4,800 / 14,000+ Operational Capital ranking: 4,800MW / 14GWh+ by mid-June 2026. Largest BESS market in CEE.
🇧🇬 Bulgaria IPS Battery Factory (Sofia) 3,000 MWh/yr In Production Production started. Expanding to 5 GWh/yr capacity by Q2 2027.
🇷🇴 Romania Premier Energy (Iași) 200 / 400 Under Construction On track for Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 COD. €100M ČSOB financing.
🇷🇴 Romania PNE Romania - 2 standalone (Constanța) 272 / 544 Permits secured 165MW/330MWh + 107MW/214MWh. Grid connection at 110kV.
🇷🇴 Romania PPC - Fântânele-Vest + Corugea 86 / 172 Development 45.7MW/91.4MWh + 40.1MW/80.2MWh. Modernisation Fund co-financed.
🇷🇸 Serbia 7 standalone (EMS contracts) 724 / n/a Grid contracts signed Djerdap I at 20%, Djerdap II at 30%. BESS urgently needed for grid stability.
🇲🇰 N. Macedonia Ministry BESS grant scheme TBD Public call open Ministry launched public call for standalone BESS grants - first in country.
🇬🇷 Greece 3 tender programmes 900 / n/a 0 MW connected 2026 curtailments forecast 3.3-3.7 TWh. BESS still unfinanced.
Selected transactions, June to August 2026
€175M
EBRD - €175M loan to PPC for BG/GR/RO renewables. Supports ~400MW of new wind and solar across Bulgaria, Greece and Romania. Guaranteed under EU InvestEU Programme - longer maturity than market terms.
🇧🇬 BG 🇬🇷 GR 🇷🇴 RO
€25M
AFD + CGES - Montenegro substation modernization. Loan from French development agency for Perućica and Pljevlja 2 substations. Enables integration of up to 350MW of hydropower - critical for Montenegro's energy transition.
🇲🇪 ME
TBD
Serbia - EDF + AFD strategic energy partnership. Serbia signed partnership with Électricité de France and Agence Française de Développement. Covers renewables, grid modernization and energy transition support.
🇷🇸 RS
€460M
Enery Ogrezeni - under construction. 761MW PV + 534MW/1GWh+ BESS - potentially largest hybrid in Europe. Financial close with Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit, ING. Construction ongoing.
🇷🇴 RO
€100M
Premier Energy - 200MW/400MWh BESS Romania. Under construction near Iași. On track for Q4 2026 commissioning - timing now critical given Cernavodă nuclear outage and Danube crisis.
🇷🇴 RO
€700M
Premier Energy acquires Evryo Group / DEO. Distribution operator Distribuție Energie Oltenia from Macquarie. PPC also expanding into Hungary. Regional consolidation accelerating.
🇷🇴 RO
Regulatory developments, July to August 2026
🇷🇴 Romania - ENERGY EMERGENCY
State of energy alert declared - Danube at 1,500 m³/s (⅓ of July average). Cernavodă nuclear at 50% capacity, one reactor shut down. Romanian navy carried out controlled underwater explosions near Bala Canal to redirect cooling water. Acting PM Bolojan called on citizens to reduce consumption in peak hours. Carmakers Dacia and Ford halted production until Aug 19, cutting about 200 MW of demand. Both plants also run scheduled August maintenance, so the saving is partly seasonal. Day-ahead prices hit €340/MWh on Aug 4. Grid capacity auctions (Oct 30) remain on schedule - Transelectrica has confirmed no delays.
🇷🇸 Serbia - ENERGY EMERGENCY
Djerdap I at 20% and Djerdap II at 30% of capacity. PM Macut presided over emergency energy meeting Aug 4. Citizens asked to limit AC and large appliances. Danube level nearing 1909 negative record at Serbia entry point. Emergency declared in three municipalities. SEEPEX settled at €107/MWh - but Serbia is importing, not exporting.
🇧🇬 Bulgaria
Bulgaria net exporter during crisis - BESS enabling new role. Bulgarian solar output covers domestic demand and exports to Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia and Greece simultaneously. BESS fleet (4,800MW / 14GWh) imports cheap midday solar, exports in evening peaks. Kozloduy nuclear flagged as potential curtailment risk if Danube falls further. Bulgaria's RESTORE deadline was July 31, 2026 - projects commissioned by deadline confirmed.
🇬🇷 Greece
Curtailments 2026 forecast: 3.3-3.7 TWh (+75% vs 2025). Greece relies on Bulgarian imports during Danube crisis - ironic given Greece's own curtailment problem. Curtailments already represent 12% of renewables output in 2026. Remote control law for RES >400kW in force. No BESS financing solution in sight.
🇲🇰 North Macedonia
Ministry launches first standalone BESS grant scheme. Public call issued July-August 2026. Štip wind farm (Končar + Dalekovod) construction started - first phase. Intraday market operational since May 6.
🇪🇺 EU - AI Gigafactories
EuroHPC €10B AI Gigafactories call - energy demand signal. Invitation to bids for AI compute infrastructure published Aug 4. Each Gigafactory requires 100-500MW of firm power. SEE countries with cheap renewable + BESS are competitive hosts. Watch for data center + PPA announcements in BG and RO by Q1 2027.

The Danube crisis is the most important stress test SEE's energy infrastructure has faced in a decade. Record-low water at 10 cm in Budapest. Serbia's largest hydro plant at 20% of capacity. Romania deploying its navy to blast riverbeds. Bulgaria's nuclear plant on watch. And in the middle of all this - solar panels keep generating, batteries keep charging and discharging, and Bulgaria emerges as a net exporter to the region. This is not a coincidence. It is the structural argument for the energy transition made visible in real time.

Bulgaria's BESS fleet - 4,800 MW / 14+ GWh - has changed the country's grid role. In the old model, Bulgaria exported baseload coal power. In the new model, it imports cheap midday solar from across the region, stores it, and re-exports it in evening peaks when neighbours are desperate for supply. Romania was paying €340/MWh on August 4. Bulgaria's batteries were buying at near-zero and selling into that spread. The business model works. The infrastructure investment thesis is validated.

Greece remains the cautionary tale. 12 GW of solar installed, 3.3-3.7 TWh forecast to be curtailed in 2026, zero operational BESS from 900 MW tendered, and now relying on Bulgarian imports during the regional crisis. The country that built solar fastest is least prepared to benefit from it. The connection between curtailment, BESS deployment failure, and import dependency is not accidental - it is the predictable result of a financing framework that never resolved the bankability of storage.

The drought exposes a structural vulnerability that the energy transition was supposed to solve. Hydro was supposed to be the flexibility provider. At 10 cm of Danube, it provides nothing. The lesson for the next decade of infrastructure planning in SEE is that flexibility cannot depend on a single resource - and that BESS is not optional for any grid with serious renewable penetration. The countries that understood this early (Bulgaria, Romania) are weathering the crisis. The countries that didn't (Serbia, Greece) are in emergency mode.