Three Southeast European exchanges published October 2026 monthly averages for both a whole-day and a peak block. On all three the peak average again cleared below the whole-day average, as it did in September. On all three the gap narrowed sharply.
IBEX in Bulgaria printed a day-ahead baseload average of EUR 232.03/MWh against a peak average of EUR 217.66/MWh for October, on 2.915 TWh traded. SEEPEX in Serbia printed EUR 234.31/MWh baseload against a euro-peak average of EUR 229.17/MWh, on 579 308 MWh. The North Macedonian day-ahead exchange printed an average market-clearing price of EUR 224.74/MWh against a peak-price average of EUR 210.90/MWh, on 186 900 MWh. Each of those figures is reported by Serbia Energy from the exchanges' own October statistics, dated 09.11.2026 for Bulgaria and North Macedonia and 03.11.2026 for Serbia.
The gaps that follow from those published pairs are 6.2 per cent on IBEX, 2.2 per cent on SEEPEX and 6.2 per cent on the Macedonian exchange. Those three percentages are arithmetic on the published averages, not figures any exchange published. In September the same calculation on the figures in Brief No 08 gave 23.3 per cent, 12.1 per cent and 19.3 per cent.
So the direction held and the magnitude collapsed. A revenue model carrying a fixed percentage haircut against baseload would have been wrong in both months, and wrong in opposite directions: far too generous in September, far too harsh in October.
What moved was the level. Bulgaria's baseload average rose about 40 per cent from EUR 166.24/MWh in September. Serbia's rose 56.2 per cent and its euro-peak average rose 73.8 per cent, which is why the gap nearly closed: the peak block rose faster than the day. North Macedonia's average rose 49.3 per cent. Romania, which publishes a weighted average rather than a baseload and peak pair, averaged EUR 239.32/MWh on OPCOM in October on about 1.263 TWh traded, on a report of 09.11.2026 that does not state whether that average is baseload or weighted.
One number published this month shows how far both proxies sit from the thing they stand in for. Reporting ACER's 2026 market integration monitoring on 04.11.2026, Balkan Green Energy News gives the Greek solar capture price for May 2026 as EUR 24.63 against an average market price of EUR 88.95, attributed to DAPEEP. That is a capture price proper, output-weighted against settlement prices, and it is roughly a quarter of the market average for the same month. Neither a baseload average nor a peak block comes close to describing it.
My position. I am inclined to think the useful conclusion from two consecutive months is not a revised discount but the abandonment of the discount as an input. The shape of the day is what changed, and the only inputs that survive a change of shape are the hourly generation profile of the specific plant, hourly settlement prices rather than monthly averages, and whatever is on site that can move energy between hours.
| Mkt | Project | MW | MWh | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BG | Total operating BESS power | 6 230 | >19 000 | Operating | Late October, sourced to ESO via Capital and reported on 03.11.2026, against 5 410 MW in mid August and 3 430 MW before the end of May. Over 01.10.2026 to 25.10.2026 batteries supplied an average of 18 GWh a day and absorbed an average of 19.9 GWh a day. The energy capacity figure carries no as-at date beyond late October. |
| BG | Tenevo BESS-2, Yambol | 246 | 512.5 | Financed | EBRD announced a EUR 30 million senior loan on 02.11.2026 inside a EUR 60 million package with Raiffeisen Bank International, to Tenevo Solar Technologies, a 50:50 joint venture involving Renalfa IPP. It is co-located with the existing 242 MWp PV plant and the 65 MW / 260 MWh BESS-1. Brief No 08 printed 311 MW / 773 MWh for the site across three battery phases. The EBRD describes two systems whose components sum to 311 MW and 772.5 MWh, and finances the larger one on 02.11.2026, a month after the inauguration. |
| RO | Total installed BESS power | 1 162 | n/a | Operating | At 01.10.2026, against 494 MW at 01.01.2026, on a report of 05.11.2026 that names no publishing operator or regulator. No MWh figure accompanies it. Treat the MW series as indicative until Transelectrica or ANRE publishes it. |
| RO | Scornicesti standalone, Olt | 127 | 254 | Completing | R.Power with Eiffel Investment Group and EPC contractor Parapet, on a EUR 46 million package secured in June that includes EUR 44 million of EBRD investment and bridge financing plus a EUR 2.3 million BGK guarantee securing an optimisation contract with GEN-I. The named components sum to EUR 46.3 million against the stated EUR 46 million package, and the source does not explain the difference. Reported on 13.10.2026 as expected online early next year. |
| RO | Dumbrava-Deal, Neamt | 50 | 100 | Under construction | Parapet and MetaWealth were reported on 12.10.2026 to have started construction, with civil works under way and full commissioning targeted for spring 2027. The source gives no start date and no investment figure. |
| RO | Medgidia, Constanta | n/a | 612 | Share purchase signed | ENNA Solar was reported on 26.10.2026 to have signed for 100 per cent of CIC Grenn Energy Medgidia, the company name spelled as in the source, holder of 166 MWp of planned solar plus the battery, on about 204 hectares, expected generation 265 932 MWh a year, construction from the first quarter of 2027 and operation from the first quarter of 2028. Price undisclosed, closing subject to foreign investment screening and competition clearance. |
| GR | Nees Karyes, Larissa | 330 | 790 | Inaugurated | Metlen and Karatzis Group inaugurated the country's largest standalone battery, reported on 16.10.2026, on a EUR 170 million investment, in a joint venture held 51 per cent by Karatzis and 49 per cent by Metlen, built in six months. |
| GR | Thessaloniki industrial site | 100 | 200 | Completed | HELLENiQ Renewables completed the park at the group's industrial facilities, reported on 12.10.2026, on an investment of about EUR 50 million. Reporting of the same date names Huawei as supplier; the company itself does not. |
| GR | Total operating standalone BESS | ~800 | n/a | Operating | ADMIE on 30.10.2026, with no MWh figure published alongside it. Brief No 08 recorded about 400 MW of the 900 MW awarded in the three standalone auctions as connected at 29.09.2026; the 800 MW figure is for all operating standalone storage and is not the same measure. |
| MK | Bitola, ESM | 100 | 400 | Pending board | Estimated cost EUR 98 million, with EBRD, KfW, concessional climate finance and a Western Balkans Investment Framework grant named as sources on 05.11.2026. The EBRD project record puts its own sovereign-guaranteed loan at up to EUR 33.1 million and shows a board voting date of 02.12.2026. Lender-by-lender amounts are not published. |
| AL | Project Blue, Fier | n/a | 130 | Ordered | Matrix Konstruksion and Blessed Investment Group ordered a Sungrow system for the 185 MWp first phase, reported on 07.10.2026, four days before this issue's window opens. The order covers 26 PowerTitan 2.0 battery units and 13 MVS3460-LS units. A second phase of 164 MWp of PV with an 80 MW / 180 MWh battery is planned. Terms and commissioning dates not disclosed, and the first phase battery is given in MWh only. |
| ME | EPCG with PowerX | n/a | ~500 | Memorandum | Targeted over an initial three-year period, described in the 05.11.2026 regional report as indicative and not a final investment decision. PowerX dates the signing to 08.05.2026, outside this issue's window. |
| RS | Connection process terms | n/a | n/a | Process | EMS updated its connection request lists on 04.11.2026. Published terms: a simplified study route for an existing active customer with controllable load or storage below 10 MW and no export capability, at a study fee of EUR 15 000 plus VAT. The circulating figure of around 2 GW of battery connection agreements in 2026 has no publishing operator, no as-at date and no MWh, and is not carried here as capacity. |
| BA | Connection queue, solar and wind | 18 100 | n/a | Queue | 13 500 MW of solar and 4 600 MW of wind applications tracked by Elektroprijenos BiH, against 5 547 MW of installed generation at the end of 2025, for which the source gives no publishing institution. NOSBiH warns the grid is not ready for rapid variable growth and flags 2027 to 2036 for congestion and system-operation risk. No battery project reached any milestone in the window. |
| XK | Wind auctions, rounds one and two | up to 300 | n/a | Bids in | Preparation of a second round of up to 200 MW with IFC support began 13.10.2026, while three bids from the first round of up to 100 MW remain under evaluation. Akuo Energy submitted the lowest first-round bid at EUR 75.94/MWh against EUR 78.89/MWh from the Notus Energy and Stublla Energy consortium, with no award confirmed as at 10.11.2026. This is wind, not storage, and is tracked here because it is the flexibility-adjacent procurement in that market this month. |
Electricity market legislation reported on 03.11.2026 as submitted to parliament would charge data centres an annual levy of EUR 15 000 per MW, payable to local communities, and require a grid connection guarantee of EUR 200 000 per MW. At least 60 per cent of annual consumption would have to come from renewable generation, and connection applications above 200 MW would get priority assessment. The ministry had presented the connection rules on 12.10.2026 with the same guarantee figure at a three year duration. Reporting disagrees on the submission date, 31.10.2026 in one account and 03.11.2026 in another, so neither is stated as fact here. No act number is published and the bill is subject to parliamentary approval. For anyone sizing storage in Greece this is the first time a price has been put on the load side of the flexibility question rather than the generation side.
Parliament passed amendments to the Renewable Energy Sources Act at second reading on 06.11.2026, completing transposition of Directive (EU) 2023/2413, whose deadline was 21 May 2025. The amendments extend the validity of grid connection opinions for wind generators and are presented as encouraging decentralised generation and storage. The bill was submitted by the Council of Ministers on 10.07.2026. No State Gazette number has been published, so the operative text and its entry into force are not yet citable.
The Republic of Srpska government was reported on 29.10.2026 to be tightening the rules for solar development on farmland, after 3 064 hectares of agricultural land were reclassified between 2022 and 2024, 588 hectares in 2022, 1 141 in 2023 and 1 335 in 2024, with more than 60 per cent of that area attributed to solar projects. Municipalities currently permit solar installations up to 150 kW. The measure is a response to land conversion, not to grid capacity, and the 18.1 GW queue is untouched by it.
The EUR 150 million standalone storage call closed on 30.10.2026 at 14:00 without a published outcome. The published terms are grant ceilings of EUR 69 000 per MWh and EUR 15 million per undertaking, against a programme target of at least 2 174 MWh. Submission figures circulating before the deadline could not be verified for this issue and are not carried. No ranked list, award amount or contracted MWh has been published, and no Romanian act, order or emergency ordinance dated inside this window was located.
No new or amended act was located in either market inside the window, and no official gazette reference was found. That is the result of searching, not an assumption. Both markets were active in permitting and in procurement during the month, which is recorded in the sections above, but neither produced a published legislative change in this window.
One clarification first, on our own text. Brief No 08 printed the Tenevo complex at 311 MW / 773 MWh of storage across three battery phases, brought into commercial operation at the inauguration at the start of October. The EBRD announcement of 02.11.2026 describes the site differently: an existing 242 MWp PV plant with one 65 MW / 260 MWh battery, plus a second battery of 246 MW / 512.5 MWh that it is now financing. Two systems, not three phases. The power adds to the same 311 MW and the energy to 772.5 MWh against the 773 MWh we printed. What was not visible last month is that the larger of the two reached financial close only in November. I do not think the earlier line was wrong on the information then available. I do think it shows how quickly an inauguration and a financing can be read as one event when they are a month apart.
On the discount, I would now stop using it. Two months, three exchanges, and two answers that differ by between three and five and a half times. September gave 23.3, 19.3 and 12.1 per cent below the whole-day average. October gives 6.2, 6.2 and 2.2 per cent, on my own arithmetic from the published pairs, so the gap narrowed by a factor of 3.8 in Bulgaria, 3.1 in North Macedonia and 5.5 in Serbia. A fixed haircut would have overstated revenue in one month and understated it in the next. The published Greek capture price of EUR 24.63 for May 2026 against a market average of EUR 88.95 says the same thing from the other direction: where the real number is published, it sits nowhere near either block average. The haircut was always a convenience. It is now a measurably wrong one.
What I would take forward is the direction of the Bulgarian series, not a ratio. ESO's own figures run 3.43 GW before the end of May, 5.41 GW in mid August and 6.23 GW in late October. Two in-window reports put Bulgarian solar at about 7.2 and about 7.3 GW, neither attributed and neither dated, so I am not going to build a parity argument on a denominator I cannot source. The battery series alone says enough: a system that added roughly 2.8 GW of battery power in five months is being rebuilt around the shape of the day, and the question for an operating park stops being what the annual average price will be and becomes which hours it can still sell into and what it owns that can move energy out of the others.
And the queues keep answering the same way. Bosnia and Herzegovina carries 18.1 GW of solar and wind applications against 5 547 MW installed, with its own system operator saying the grid is not ready. Kosovo has a lowest wind bid of EUR 75.94/MWh on the table, not yet awarded, in a system that has lost a thermal unit for the winter. Albania is preparing 300 MW of solar with mandatory co-located storage while its grid capacity is still being assessed. Three markets, three stages, one constraint. An existing connection with something on it that can shift hours is still the asset worth owning in this region, and nothing in October changed that.